5 Holiday Shopping Trends to Define Thanksgiving and Christmas 2024
It’s a critical time of year for the retail industry. With just 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, the holiday shopping season is more compressed than usual, but that won’t slow down consumer spending.
According to the Salesforce 2024 Holiday Forecast, year-over-year sales growth of 2% is expected in November and December. In the United States alone, holiday spending is predicted to hit $277 billion.
Nevertheless, holiday shoppers are increasingly wary of higher prices, and a slight squeeze on personal finances could lead to some savvier shopping behaviors. With 87% of people planning to spend the same or less than last year, retailers have an even bigger incentive than usual to price competitively.
This could influence 2024 holiday shopping trends. Here’s what I expect to see as consumers start their holiday shopping.
1. Holiday Spending Moves To TikTok
The Salesforce report is bullish on TikTok’s prospects over the holiday shopping season. It cites a 24% increase in the number of consumers making a purchase through the app since April.
That comes as little surprise, given the rise of social commerce. Appetite for buying directly through social media has had its peaks and troughs, especially in the West, but TikTok Shop has proved hugely popular with US consumers.
“Social commerce” searches are up 63% in the last 5 years.
Just as online shopping once transformed the holiday retail scene, TikTok Shop and social commerce could be in line to do the same in 2024. The format lends itself uniquely well to shopping for gifts, with users able to browse idly for ideas, before efficiently completing a purchase when they see a product they like.
And with that age demographic making up 55% of TikTok’s user base, the platform is bound to be a popular holiday shopping destination for young people.
The growth of TikTok Shop has been astronomical.
Semrush recorded more than 2.6 billion visits to TikTok last month, so there is a huge potential pool of holiday shoppers. The social media platform clearly knows this and is relying on more than just organic growth to amplify its social commerce offering.
TikTok has struck deals with some major celebrities ahead of the holiday shopping season. Nicki Minaj and the D’Amelio family will be among those hosting live shopping events.
It’s all part of what TikTok is calling “Brand Palooza”, a campaign which will span both Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Major brands like Fenty Beauty will be offering discounts exclusively through the app.
TikTok Shop is making a concerted Black Friday and Cyber Monday push.
I believe these discounts will prove even more effective than celebrity collaborations when it comes to attracting customers. It remains to be seen whether or not TikTok will truly get the live shopping element of social commerce to catch on in the US, but the convenience of never having to leave the platform fulfills a tangible consumer desire — especially when coupled with holiday sales.
TikTok Shop is also extending the returns window on eligible purchases from November 13 through February 10 in an effort to become the destination of choice for 2024 holiday shopping.
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2. BNPL Tempts Holiday Shoppers
Buy now, pay later (BNPL) is nothing new anymore. In fact, it has become a staple of the online shopping scene.
“BNPL” searches are up by 469% in the last 5 years.
As we can see from the chart, search interest is rising as consumers start their holiday shopping. BNPL can provide some short-term relief at a notoriously expensive time of year.
In fact, 67% of parents plan on using BNPL options to finance holiday purchases this year.
The Mastercard Holiday Spending Outlook notes that buyers may be “slightly more stretched” this holiday shopping season, citing cooling job creation and slowing wage growth. The effect of the presidential election result on these factors is still becoming clear, but won’t have any radical impact on personal finances in time for Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Holiday shoppers are also contending with higher prices. Inflation has at least slowed compared to last year, but the allure of BNPL offerings is obvious.
Searches for Klarna, a major BNPL provider, are approaching an all-time high.
“Klarna” searches are up 50% in the last 5 years.
Its website provides links to businesses which accept Klarna at checkout, amplifying their holiday deals.
The Klarna website refers users to holiday deals at partner retailers.
For retailers hoping to cash in on holiday spending, making BNPL available is an important part of any E-commerce marketing strategy.
3. A Big Black Friday And Cyber Monday
As holiday shoppers look to put the brakes on their spending, Black Friday and Cyber Monday are likely to become even bigger events than ever. Falling after Thanksgiving but before Christmas, they offer the prospect of some good deals on gifts for the latter holiday.
A Bain forecast estimates that US retail sales could hit $75 billion from the start of Black Friday to the end of Cyber Monday. That would be a record high.
And that only accounts for spending within a very specific time window. The reality is that Black Friday in particular has sprawled, stretching across essentially the entire holiday shopping season.
Consumers are already starting to search for “Black Friday 2024 deals”
Amazon is beginning its Black Friday event on November 21, a week before Thanksgiving. Semrush data shows that the total number of visits to Amazon jumped from 3.09 billion in September to 3.41 billion in October.
Meanwhile, plenty of holiday sales are already underway — and deals are also spilling out beyond just the retail industry.
For instance, the Semrush Black Friday promotion is currently live. Customers who subscribe to 1 month of Semrush Pro receive a free SEO consultation worth $300.
Black Friday has evolved well beyond a single date and industry.
Returning to the retail industry, Bain predicts that Black Friday could become the single biggest shopping day in the holiday period for the first time since 2019.
Cyber Monday, meanwhile, has reportedly not even featured in the top seven biggest days for total retail sales in any of the last four years (although other sources disagree). But it could be in for a big 2024.
Savings-conscious consumers could place renewed emphasis on Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
A YouGov poll found that 36% of US consumers intend to shop on Black Friday this year, while 34% plan to make a Cyber Monday purchase.
4. Holiday Shoppers Turn To “Dupes”
A “dupe” (short for duplicate) is a budget product designed to replicate a more high-end item as closely as possible. Retailers will sometimes even claim to be using the same factories and materials as bigger brand names.
Around 31% of adults have purchased a dupe. That figure rises to almost 50% among Gen Z.
In a holiday shopping season with an emphasis on savings, this trend should not be ignored. Big brands may not always like the practice, but the pattern of consumer behavior is clear.
“Dupes” searches are up 317% in the last 5 years.
For established brands, this creates a heightened need to prove value. Lululemon staged a clever marketing stunt whereby pop-up stores invited consumers to trade in their “dupes”, taking the chance to showcase the quality of the original product.
How might this apply specifically to the holiday season? One example would be beauty advent calendars.
“Advent calendars” are becoming a progressively bigger deal every year, having evolved beyond the classic chocolate offerings.
These luxury calendars are likely to be extensively reviewed in “unboxing” videos. The big names will need to be delivering high-quality products in order to fend off cheaper alternatives.
In fact, essentially any giftable product will need to meet that same standard. 21% of purchases this holiday season are expected to be made through Chinese retailers like Temu, Shein and AliExpress (TikTok is also included) — the onus is on their competitors to prove they are providing a higher level of product and service.
5. Visual Search Points Physical Buyers Toward Online Shopping
Even in an increasingly online world, in-store shopping still accounts for billions of dollars of holiday spending. That will be the case again in 2024.
However, E-commerce is starting to assert greater dominance. Online shopping dominates Cyber Monday — 82% of buyers make their purchases primarily online.
The disparities are smaller at other key times throughout the holiday shopping season. But the weekend after Thanksgiving and the week between Christmas and New Year are the only periods when in-store shopping takes precedence.
Holiday shoppers lean toward online shopping for most of the festive period.
This year, even those who go into physical stores to look for gifts could ultimately be driven online. The dawn of visual search has made hybrid browsing far more seamless.
Visual search technology, which allows users to find out more about something by taking a picture of it, is not especially new. Google first launched its version back in 2017.
But adoption of visual search has been supercharged by Gen Z. Google Lens now receives almost 20 billion queries every month, and users aged 18-24 are engaging the most.
Searches for “Google Lens” are up 370% in the last 5 years.
I think these changing consumer behaviors will alter how holiday shopping takes place.
Picture a young consumer at a physical retail location. It’s little more than common sense for them to do a quick visual search of an item that catches their eye — in an instant, they can find similar products they might prefer, or even the same product available for less money.
Google Lens could turn in-store browsing into online purchasing.
The Pinterest visual search feature is even more specifically geared toward online shopping. The “Shop” tab brings up an array of retail links related to the searched image.
Physical stores do still boast the intangible advantage of a holiday atmosphere, and will remain baked into the routines of lots of shoppers. But these retailers will need to move with the times — 56% of consumers consider a store or brand app at least moderately important, and mobile payment solutions are highly valued.
Navigate Holiday Shopping Trends As A Retailer And A Consumer
Whether you are selling or buying, it’s worth having an awareness of the trends shaping the 2024 holiday shopping season.
Consumers are more empowered and motivated than ever to make smart buying decisions. It’s up to retailers to adapt accordingly.
That means meeting buyers where they are at, including novel platforms like TikTok Shop. It means having a clear brand value message. And it means embracing technology like BNPL and visual search.
But the bottom line is that total retail spend over the holiday season will once again run into the hundreds of billions. Good discoverability over this period is an opportunity too important for sellers to pass up — which is why now is the perfect time to sign up to Semrush.
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